Argentina soybean production forecast down 13% 16 March, 2018 at 15:03

The revised production prospects for Argentine soybeans were down significantly from previous projections. The USDA forecast 2017-18 production at 47 million tonnes, down 7 million tonnes, or 13%, from the previous month’s projection and off significantly from the previous two years: 19% lower than the 2016-17 outturn of 57.8 million tonnes and 17% lower than the 2015-16 outturn of 56.8 million tonnes.

The U.S.D.A.’s lower forecast for Argentine soybean production followed a trend that began in January’s report with a 1-million-tonne reduction, a 1.7% drop, followed by a 2-million-tonne (3.6%) decrease in February.

Yield prospects for 2017-18 Argentina soybean production were lowered based on heat, dryness and low soil moisture recorded through much of the growing region during the January-February flowering period. The USDA forecast an average yield of 2.61 tonnes per hectare, an 11% decrease from the prior month’s projection, and down 17% from the previous year.

Argentina’s domestic crush estimate for 2017-18 was lowered 1.5% from the previous month to 43 million tonnes but remained within a narrow range of crush estimates from the previous two years.