Outlook for Ukraine’s oilseed market

(Adapted from the 7th International Conference BlackSeaOil Trade, Julia Garkavenko, Oilseed market expert, UkrAgroConsult)

In the world market, Ukraine has gained a reputation of a reliable partner and supplier of oilseeds and oilseed products. Demand for the Ukrainian commodities increases from season to season, alike supply from Ukraine. Oilseeds production has doubled over the past decade, gaining almost 11 MMT.

The crop of oilseeds in the new 2019/20 season will be below the previous season’s record, but above the average, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Positive outlooks are only seen in rapeseed production: it is expected to hit a new high, but this volume will not be enough to offset a decline in output of other oilseeds (soybeans – down 1 MMT, sunflower seed – down 500 KMT).

Ukraine began growing rapeseed in 2008 thanks to demand from the EU’s biodiesel industry, and now the country is the world’s second biggest exporter of this commodity, next to Canada.

According to UkrAgroConsult’s estimates, more than 2.5 MMT of rapeseed will be exported to the EU in the new season. The reason is that droughts and crop declines have been seen there for some years, therefore the EU is forced to step up imports of this product.

Owing to Europe, Ukraine has started growing high-oleic sunflower seed. Europe was among the first to begin importing Ukrainian soybean meal. The EU’s need for this product is estimated at 30 MMT, with half the volume supplied from outside the European Union.