September’s USDA report on the Black Sea region: another cut in wheat production forecast

Russia. The wheat crop forecast was decreased again, by another 0.5 MMT to a new market low of 72.5 MMT. In the opinion of UkrAgroConsult, USDA underestimates wheat production in Russia. The average yield in the country does exceed last year, though by just 2%.

At the same time, USDA left unchanged its forecast for Russian exports at 34 MMT. UkrAgroConsult believes that, with the crop forecast at 72.5 MMT, exports hardly will exceed 31 MMT in view of low opening stocks.

Kazakhstan.  The estimate of wheat production was cut by another 1.5 MMT due to low yield in one of the country’s key wheat growing regions. The wheat export forecast was lowered by 1.3 MMT.

Ukraine. The wheat crop forecast was reduced by 0.5 MMT, while the estimate for exports remains at a record 19.5 MMT.