USDA lifted its forecast for Black Sea grain production and exports

Wheat

The wheat crop forecast for Ukraine was increased by 300 KMT. The estimate for Russia grew more substantially, by 1.5 MMT. Consequently, the wheat export forecast for each of these countries was raised by 0.5 MMT.

Corn

The estimate for corn production in Ukraine was decreased by 0.5 MMT. In our opinion, the reason is concerns about Ukrainian corn yield during the latter half of harvest. The estimate for exports from Ukraine was left unchanged. The forecasts for Russian production and, correspondingly, exports were lifted by the same 0.5 MMT.

Barley

The barley projections only concerned Ukraine: the forecast for this crop’s output was increased by 0.3 KMT.

The grain production and export estimates for Kazakhstan were left unchanged.

So, the forecast for Black Sea grain production was raised by 2.1 MMT (+1.1% against October’s estimate). The export estimate was lifted by 1.5 MMT (+1.4%).

USDA: Estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in 2019/20 season, MMT (November)