USDA lifted its forecast for Black Sea grain production and exports 12 November, 2019 at 12:11

Wheat

The wheat crop forecast for Ukraine was increased by 300 KMT. The estimate for Russia grew more substantially, by 1.5 MMT. Consequently, the wheat export forecast for each of these countries was raised by 0.5 MMT.

Corn

The estimate for corn production in Ukraine was decreased by 0.5 MMT. In our opinion, the reason is concerns about Ukrainian corn yield during the latter half of harvest. The estimate for exports from Ukraine was left unchanged. The forecasts for Russian production and, correspondingly, exports were lifted by the same 0.5 MMT.

Barley

The barley projections only concerned Ukraine: the forecast for this crop’s output was increased by 0.3 KMT.

The grain production and export estimates for Kazakhstan were left unchanged.

So, the forecast for Black Sea grain production was raised by 2.1 MMT (+1.1% against October’s estimate). The export estimate was lifted by 1.5 MMT (+1.4%).

 

USDA: Estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in 2019/20 season, MMT (November)

 

Country

Wheat

Corn

Barley

Production

Export

Production

Export

Production

Export

19/20 (Nov)

19/20 (Oct)

19/20 (Nov)

19/20 (Oct)

19/20 (Nov)

19/20 (Oct)

19/20 (Nov)

19/20 (Oct)

19/20 (Nov)

19/20 (Oct)

19/20 (Nov)

19/20 (Oct)

Ukraine

29.0Описание: Описание: arrow1

28.7

20.0Описание: Описание: arrow1

19.5

35.5Описание: Описание: arrow2

36.0

30.0

30.0

9.5Описание: Описание: arrow1

9.2

4.8

4.8

Russia

74.0Описание: Описание: arrow1

72.5

34.5Описание: Описание: arrow1

34.0

14.0Описание: Описание: arrow1

13.5

5.7Описание: Описание: arrow1

5.2

20.0

20.0

5.6

5.6

Kazakhstan

11.5

11.5

5.2

5.2

0.875

0.875

0.06

0.06

3.9

3.9

1.8

1.8