China to compete with the EU in the Ukrainian rape meal market

Ukraine and China have come to an agreement on export of Ukrainian rape meal to the Chinese market. The countries signed a protocol on this matter.

The active phase of this 2019/20 season is drawing to an end: traditionally, over 90% of exportable rapeseed-complex commodities are shipped abroad during the first 4-5 months.

In July-October 2019/20, the rapeseed export forecast was 98% fulfilled (UkrAgroConsult’s estimate), with these rates for rape oil and rape meal equaling 89% and 93%, respectively. Potentially, just first small cargoes of rape meal may be shipped to China in MY 2019/20.

In July-October 2019/20, EU countries remained the biggest importers of Ukrainian rape meal. They stepped up its purchases by 4% from a year earlier. The EU and China will have to compete with each other in the Ukrainian rape meal market – this would be a bullish factor for Ukrainian product prices.

China, which needs to import some 1.2-1.4 MMT of rape meal a year and faces trade controversies about canola supplies from Canada, shows interest in Black Sea countries: supplies from Ukraine and Kazakhstan to China have been arranged, Russia is waiting for the results of an inspection conducted in October 2019.
For Ukraine, opening China’s market will be another weighty factor to push up domestic crush.