UkrAgroConsult revising its export estimates due to the latest events

The worldwide spread of coronavirus provoked a boom in wheat purchases that, in turn, influenced world prices in March 2020. 

In addition, the crude oil price decline due to the OPEC deal collapse affected the national currencies of many countries around the world. Devaluation has begun in the Black Sea countries, whose pace differs depending on the financial measures taken by the respective government. In March, the currencies in the region devalued as follows: the Ukrainian hryvnia: -11%, the Russian rouble: -17%, the Kazakh tenge: -18%.

Many traders successfully took advantage of the situation – as a result, March witnessed a hike in wheat exports from the Black Sea region.

The governments in many countries were forced to tighten control over shipped grain volumes, therefore certain measures were taken.

All the above forces UkrAgroConsult to revise its forecasts for Black Sea wheat exports. 

We raise our estimate for Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports due to stronger foreign demand for wheat and devaluation of the national currency. We cut the figure for Kazakh wheat exports because of the imposition of quotas will adversely affect wheat exports, which are already much lower this season due to a poor crop.

Overall, it can be said already now that demand for this season’s grain begins to gradually weaken, as more and more buyers are switching their attention to buying new-crop grains.