In May, the USDA traditionally published its first estimates for this year’s crop.
The wheat production forecast for Ukraine is at 28 MMT. The decrease from the previous season is caused by an acreage reduction. An opposite situation is observed in Russia, where an expansion of plantings made the USDA raise its estimate for the country’s wheat production to 77 MMT. The crop in Kazakhstan is also projected to increase, to 13.5 MMT.
The corn production forecast for Ukraine is optimistically estimated at 39 MMT (up almost 3 MMT from MY 2019/20). At the same time, exports exceed last year’s estimate by just 1 MMT. Slight production growth is envisaged in both Russia and Kazakhstan.
Russia reduced its barley acreage in the 2020/21 season, and the production estimate was consequently cut by almost 2.5 MMT vs MY 2019/20. Barley production in Ukraine and Kazakhstan is predicted to increase.
USDA: Estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in 2019/20 and 2020/21 seasons, MMT (May)
China is the largest importer, absorbing 63% of total exports