Black Sea region: Sharpening competition in the sunflower oil market

Ukraine and Russia remain the world’s top producers of sunflower seed. 2019/20 season shows a bumper crop of sunflower seeds in these two countries.

Sunflower oil exports are at all-time highs: Ukraine – 4.5 MMT (Sep-Apr) and Russia – 2.1 MMT (Sep-Mar).

The current season saw competition between Ukraine and Russia for the Indian and Chinese export markets as well as widening the range of export destinations due to African countries, UkrAgroConsult reports.

In the 2020/21 season growth in global consumption of sunflower oil is forecasted (USDA, May 2020) to 19.7 MMT (+2% from MY 2019/20).

The structure of sunflower oil imports remains stable, with the shares of India and the EU slightly dwindled in favor of China and other countries.

Sunflower crop prospects for Ukraine and Russia are now shifting from pessimistic scenarios (suggested by moisture shortages) towards optimistic forecasts in view of decreasing weather risks.

Obviously, the planted areas in both countries will exceed official forecasts. Even with average yields, the sunflower seed harvests will be close to record-setting levels. In case of higher yield figures, they may hit new highs.