Black Sea barley might see strong competition from Australia in the upcoming season

At the beginning of the new export season Black Sea barley remains the most competitive origin on the FOB basis, despite the rise in export prices compared to 2019/20MY, UkrAgroConsult reports. 

Despite the higher prices, demand is strong for the new crop. Last two tenders (held in April and June) confirmed this with the lion`s part booked by SAGO from the Black Sea.

Weaker competition from France and Germany at the start of the new season will allow Ukraine, Russia and Romania to increase its presence on the market of Saudi Arabia. 

At the same time, barley import estimate for Saudi Arabia in 2020/21 MY is 0.5 MMT lower y/y (USDA: 7 MMT).
In September-October 2020/21 the competition might get strong again and the world prices will be pressured by the upcoming barley harvesting in Australia with export potential up 1 MMT. 

After losing Chinese market, Australia will have to look for the new markets in 2020/21, decreasing the price.