Soybean exports in the first eight months were down 29% year-on-year. This season’s total exports will drop, but to a less substantial degree than expected just a month ago: down 20% (the previous forecast was down 24%), reports UkrAgroConsult.
In the crush segment, oil extraction plants have become in thrall to a decline in world soybean complex prices. The revival in the latter half of the season is less substantial than expected.
Another bearish factor is a bumper crop of sunflower seed that allows crushers to operate in their traditional manner without facing any feedstock shortage. Spring months witnessed the highest exports of soybean products this season.
Soybean carryovers in the end of this season will be lower than predicted in the previous forecast, though still record high for Ukraine.
Farmers had planted 1484.2 Th ha (81% of forecast) by May 31; planting progress is more than 12% behind last year. To remind, the official forecast for soybean plantings is 1821.9 Th ha (up 5.5% from last year).
UkrAgroConsult’s projection is unchanged: planted acreage down 200-250 Th ha.
Soybean crop decrease in Ukraine, global market prices and weakening demand for soybean products will reduce soybean crush. Heavily dependent on the world market situation, soybean export potential will drop to a greater extent, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts expect.