Current developments in the market of the most expensive coarse grain

Although barley export price increased in the 2017/18 season, global imports of the commodity closed this past season above expectations of many market experts. Another drop in the world’s crop in 2017 did not prevent major suppliers from expanding barley shipments by 5% against the previous season, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts note.

Noteworthy is that Russia became the second biggest barley supplier this past season, mostly due to shrunk export availabilities in Australia, Ukraine and Argentina. Russia’s share grew by 10% from the previous season, to 20%, while Ukraine’s share fell by 4%, to 15%.

In view of strong demand from Saudi Arabia, China and Iran, all exporting countries intended to expand barley plantings for the 2018 harvest. However, it is absolutely clear now that only Argentina enjoyed favorable conditions for higher production and exports, and this country will enter the world market with its new crop in December-January. 

According to September’s forecast of the USDA, the 2018/19 global barley crop will be down 1.6 MMT at 142.7 MMT. But the production estimate published by the International Grains Council (IGC) in late September seems to be more realistic: it predicts the crop to decrease to a six-year low level.

Full version of the article is available via the link and to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” by UkrAgroConsult.

Analytical report "Black Sea Grain" contains detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain" by UkrAgroConsult.

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