Spring grain harvest forecast for 2022

This year’s spring sowing works are in the focus of the global markets due to martial law while some areas are close to active hostilities. Meanwhile, reliability of the sowing progress reports is under question, information missed from some Ukrainian regions.

The areas of corn and barley are the largest among other spring cereals (last season their share was 88%). Corn, barley and wheat are the leaders of Ukrainian grain exports.

Until May, the sowing rate of corn was about the same y/y, but as of May 16 planted corn area appeared to be less by 3% y/y, spring barley areas – by 31%. Sowing of barley is nearing completion due to the best time for plantings is almost over, corn sowing window lasts till the second half of June.

Of all cereals, corn area declines the mostly this year compared to the pre-war intentions, by 17%, according to a survey of Agristatis conducted with the support of the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine.

In late April and early May, Ukraine warm weather with periodic rains was friendly for a high harvest-2022. Early May moisture content in the 5-cm soil layer is significantly better y/y in the center and north of Ukraine. Optimally moistened top layer of soil will create the best conditions for sowing and sprouting of corn and other late spring crops. Lack of moisture was recorded in some fields of Lviv and Volyn regions (which have already completed spring sowing) and in the occupied territories in south-eastern Ukraine (where sowing is not conducted).

As of May 1, almost the entire territory of Ukraine has much better moisture content per meter layer than last year. This can potentially lead to high yields if no new risks arise.