UkrAgroConsult’s forecast of the 2022 grain harvest in Ukraine, June 2022

Spring planting in 2022 caused concerns in the market, as it was carried out under martial law. Firstly, its scope was territorially limited due to active hostilities in the east and south. Secondly, there were some risks with regard to providing necessary input supplies, professional staff and the need to complete sowing within the best timeframe (especially in the northern regions, where farmers had to wait for examination and demining of their fields).

Nevertheless, Ukrainian growers excelled all expectations: planting progress in Ukraine has turned out to be more optimistic.

The main contributor to this year’s planting success is corn, though early in the spring its planted area was predicted to undergo a greater year-on-year decrease. However, the reality showed that Ukrainian farmers were well prepared back in the fall and winter – they had purchased enough corn seeds beforehand.

In addition, crop growth was facilitated by favorable weather conditions. A drawn-out spring contributed to effective moisture uptake, and gradual air temperature growth over the last month reduced the deviation of NDVI, which became almost equal to its long-term average after the first week of June.