Ukraine. Future export potential scenarios
19 October, 2022 at 14:10Depending on what agreements will be reached on extending the grain deal, UkrAgroConsult sees two main options for agricultural exports in the next months of MY 2022/23.
Scenario 1
If the “grain corridor” is extended in time. Due to the grain corridor, the gains in Ukrainian exports were as follows:
- +1.66 M mt in August
- +3.93 M mt in September
Based on real-time data on October 1-10 shipments through the grain corridor, we can say with certainty that October agricultural exports through the “Big Odesa” ports will total 3.8-4.2 M mt. Unless the Mykolaiv region ports are added to this deal, the pace of exports in the coming months is to settle around 4-4.5 M mt.
So, the highest possible volume of agricultural exports under such a scenario is 7-8 M mt. This is to satisfy the market and solve the problem of exporting carryovers from last year.
