Ukraine. Future export potential scenarios

Depending on what agreements will be reached on extending the grain deal, UkrAgroConsult sees two main options for agricultural exports in the next months of MY 2022/23.

Scenario 1

If the “grain corridor” is extended in time. Due to the grain corridor, the gains in Ukrainian exports were as follows:

• +1.66 M mt in August
• +3.93 M mt in September

Based on real-time data on October 1-10 shipments through the grain corridor, we can say with certainty that October agricultural exports through the “Big Odesa” ports will total 3.8-4.2 M mt. Unless the Mykolaiv region ports are added to this deal, the pace of exports in the coming months is to settle around 4-4.5 M mt.

So, the highest possible volume of agricultural exports under such a scenario is 7-8 M mt. This is to satisfy the market and solve the problem of exporting carryovers from last year.