Updated estimates of the grain crop in Bulgaria

According to the Ag Ministry of Bulgaria, almost 2 M mt of corn has been harvested from 79% of its planted area. Corn yield equals 4.79 mt/ha, or 18.5% lower than last year. This yield result turned out to be below our expectations, therefore UkrAgroConsult is reducing its corn crop estimate for Bulgaria to 2.63 M mt. The crop reduction causes us to also cut the 2022/23 corn export forecast from 2 M mt to 1.4 M mt. Our estimates of Bulgaria’s 2022/23 wheat and barley production and exports are left unchanged.

Bulgarian exporters benefited from the russian invasion of Ukraine – since March, wheat shipments have been exceeding five-year average volumes. At the same time, prices since the end of February have occasionally more than doubled from last year’s levels.

If the “grain deal” is extended after November 19, Ukrainian origin will continue regaining its Black Sea market share lost after the beginning of the russian invasion. So, monthly grain exports from Bulgaria (primarily wheat) may return to their previous levels.