Kazakhstan: Grain harvest and export in MY 2022/23

Kazakhstan’s Ag Ministry reported the harvest of grains and pulses at a decade high of 23 M mt (+27% from MY 2021/22), with the wheat harvest increased by 30%. UkrAgroConsult updated estimate of the 2022/23 grain supply and demand balance in Kazakhstan taking into account official statistics, as well as medium losses. The 2022 grain harvest in Kazakhstan exceeds 22 M mt, exports may reach 10.5 M mt.

The lifting of export restrictions led to a surge in grain exports from Kazakhstan. Kazakh wheat exports in September-October totaled almost 1.3 M mt (+32% y/y), barley exports reached 225 K mt (4.5 times more than a year earlier). China’s interest in Kazakh barley is partly fueled by risks for further operation of Ukrainian sea ports (as a reminder, Ukraine has been one of the three biggest barley suppliers to China over the past two seasons, with a share of about 25%, while Kazakhstan has accounted for at most 2% of Chinese imports).

Flour production in the 2022/23 season gained 5%, with flour exports up 73%. We have updated our estimates of 2022/23 grain exports from Kazakhstan amid the rapid pace of exports from Kazakhstan, which is contributed to by the import of cheap grain mainly of russian origin (some 0.5 M mt in July-September, which is twice as much as a year earlier and an all-time high).