Corn. Harvest and export outlook for MY 2022/23

By December 8, only 66% of corn area was harvested, more than 17.2 M mt were harvested, with yield of 6.19 mt/ha. The harvesting rates are record slow – usually by December almost all corn areas are harvest. Most likely, 25-30% of the 2022 corn areas will be left wintering in the fields. UkrAgroConsult revise downward the 2022 corn production estimate by 0.5 M mt in net weight, taking into account potential losses during wintering in the fields.

December estimate of Ukrainian corn exports from the USDA is 17.5 M mt. Apparently USDA experts rely on the current geopolitical situation (the “grain corridor” works only until March 19 and only for 3 ports) and expect that the surplus will be consumed by the domestic market and remain in stocks, while we are optimistic and expect a repeated extension of the “grain deal” and the addition of Mykolaiv ports. Our latest estimate of corn exports in MY 2022/23 is 26.5 M mt. This is 100% of the forecast of the 2022 corn production as 2022/23 season corn carryover stocks are unusually high while domestic consumption decreased greatly.

The main importer of Ukrainian corn at the start of the 2022/23 season was the EU. The EU increased imports by 3 times compared to the last season. UkrAgroConsult expects the EU will continue large scale corn imports from Ukraine (regardless of the grain corridor prolongation), since the local corn production was below expectations. Every month since the MY 2022/23 start, the share of China in Ukrainian exports has been increasing. This is another important sign indicates a sufficient confidence in the “grain corridor” mechanism. However, please do not expect China will overtake the EU in terms of the import size, as the 2022 China corn harvest was above averages.