Ukrainian sun meal in the global animal feed market. Are the meal exports becoming more regionally concentrated? Forecast for 2022/23

In the current 2022/23 season, Ukraine will keep leading position in the world sunflower meal market despite a forecast 11% drop in exports. Anyway, the January 2023 USDA reported about strengthening positions of other major exporters.

In the first four months of the 2022/23 season (September-December 2022), SFM exports from Ukraine reached 1,454 K mt (+0.5% y/y). The monthly export volumes fell to 50-60 K mt in March-April and recovered up to 285 K mt at the end of the previous MY 2021/22.

SFM exports will continue to rising this season. The averaged shipments amounted to 364 K mt per month in the first four months (on average 362 K mt in September-December 2021).

The increase in exports resulted mainly from opening the grain corridor.

The export is focused on the two key destinations: China and the EU, while the share of other markets has dwindled.

SFM exports to China became possible after the launch of the grain corridor in August 2022.

Thanks to geographical proximity and the efficiency of the alternative logistics routes, SFM exports to EU countries grew.

Outlook for SFM exports, MY 2022/23

• Shipments to EU countries are likely to slow down in the coming months of the season (January-August 2023) in view of high sunseed exports from Ukraine and increasing crushing in Bulgaria and Romania
• China, whose hog inventories are recovering, remains the priority destination for exports. However, now Ukrainian traders have to renew the export permits again and set up a new register of sunflower meal exporters in line with the requirements of Chinese legislation
• Operation of the grain corridor is a key condition for realizing the export potential in full.