Ukraine refined sunflower oil exports is forecast at level of 500 K mt in the 2023/24 season

Sunflower oil producers of Ukraine continue to operate in the context of the war, adjusting their strategies to the realities of the current situation.

Key drivers of the 2022-2024 sunflower seeds and oil markets

• Decline in the 2022 sunflower harvest;
• Large carry over stocks of sunflower seeds and oil of the 2022/23 season – these stocks were initially seen as a burden,
• The stocks compensated the decline in the 2022 sunflower harvest;
• The stocks allowed the industry to operate and increase sunflower oil exports in the season of 2022/23;
• High exports of 2022/23 sunflower seeds and regionalization of the domestic market contributed to a deficit of sunflowers towards the end of the 2022/23 season (June-August 2023);
• Last season 2022/23, a low sunflower harvest was accompanied by power outages, reduced access to foreign markets and a decrease in the capacity of the grain corridor.

Sunflower oil refining was one of the ways to solve current problems and continue the operation of the crushing industry.

Sunflower oil exports, 2022/23:

– total exports of sunflower oil (+25% compared to 2021/22);

– incl. exports of refined sunflower oil  (+7%).

Ukraine exported refined sunflower oil to almost 120 countries. EU countries remained the key importers, but their share decreased to 40% against 45% a season earlier. Turkey, Malaysia and Jordan appeared among the top importers in the 2022/23 season.

In 2023/24 season, the total export of sunflower oil is expected to decrease by 7-8%, refined sunflower oil – by 8.6%.