Ukraine. Agricultural logistics in May 2024: Exports down

Agricultural exports in May amounted to 6.65 M mt, which is 7% less than in April. Despite expectations of 10-15% decrease, the level of May exports remains at 6.5 M mt +.

May 2024 exports

• 55 M mt – corn (-7% compared to April)
• 65 M mt – wheat (-3%)
• 62 M mt – sunflower oil (-4%)
• 51 M mt  – sunflower meal (-11%)

LAND LOGISTICS. Polish farmers are once again blocking the border. However, this applies to road transport, while rail transit remains unrestricted. Oilseeds, and processed products are most often exported by road, and in 2024 the volume of transportation was about 100 K mt per month. This problem is aggravated by quite new logistical difficulties, such as the reduced number of drivers in Ukraine due to mobilization.

Forecast of UkrAgroConsult. Over the past year, the situation on the border with Poland has remained unpredictable, which may result in vehicle downtime or delayed delivery times. The problem will continue in the coming 2024/25 season, making rail transport a more stable option for overland exports.

DANUBE PORTS: Demand for exports via Danube ports has been minimal since May 2022. This is reflected in the barge freight on the Izmail-Konstanta route. A large supply of barges and low demand have led to a decrease in freight costs on this route to 9-10 Euros per ton.

Although the Danube ports are not currently a logistics superstar, this cluster can serve as a Plan B for Ukrainian agricultural export logistics in case of problems with agricultural exports through the ports of Big Odesa.