Ukraine. Wheat 2024/25 season: Early start, record exports, export memorandum, other price setting factors

HARVESTING IS OVER 

The 2024 wheat harvesting is over several weeks earlier than usually. The final yield is reported at 4.47 mt/ha, above the 5-year average but below y/y. Though harvested area increased by 152 K ha in 2024 compared to 2023, the harvest was 636 K mt lower due to lower yields.

2024/25 WHEAT EXPORTS RATES

The early start of the wheat harvest allowed for higher than usual exports in July of 1.545 M mt, which is an all-time record for this month. This fact also supports the estimate of higher carryover stocks for the 2024/25 season.

In the last two years the pattern of exports by month has changed.  Prior to 2022, Ukraine exported more than 70% of total exports in the first half of the season (July-December). In 2022-2023, exports during these months were only 40-50% of total exports.

Monthly shipments in 2022-2024 were lower, but without strong peaks. UkrArgoConsult expects the export rates to change again in the current 2024/25 MY, closer to the traditional export season.

EXPORT MEMORANDUM 

A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and grain market associations. The Memo sets the maximum wheat export quota at 16.2 M mt. Flour industry of Ukraine proposed to specify in the Memo that the export of wheat protein 11%+ should not exceed 4.6 M mt. This proposal is still under discussion as share of milling wheat in this year’s crop is slightly lower than usual. The market is converging milling wheat share at +/- 40% in total production, compared to the usual 50-55%.