Ukraine starts 2024/25 season: Grain exports are growing

Wheat. In 2024/25 MY, the early harvest promoted significant increase in exports in the first months compared to previous seasons. In contrast to the start of 2023/24 MY, Ukraine’s deep-water ports/grain corridor were operational. As a result, Ukraine wheat exports to distant Asian markets, including Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand increased.

Barley. The July-September 2024/25 barley export also grew compared to last season up to 1M+ mt. This is also twice as much as in the same period of 2023/24. In 2023/24, China returned to buying Ukrainian barley, increasing barley shipments. The lack of Chinese appetite for grain in September reduced support for local prices in that month, but Chinese purchases resumed in October. The top 5 Ukrainian barley importers account for 80% of total exports.

Price trends. Despite the harvest, wheat and barley prices continued to rise following the global trends. The smallest wheat harvest in France for 20 years made Black Sea wheat almost a must for Mediterranean markets.  American wheat is still losing the price contest, but will be quite competitive after the expected depletion of wheat stocks in russia and Ukraine.