Ukraine. Export grain potential is 20% lower than in the previous season

In early December, after the introduction of the new export security regime, most large exporters faced the problem of limits on the registration of export invoices. This was stated by Elizaveta Malyshko, grain market expert at UkrAgroConsult.

As a result, the December shipments of agricultural products decreased significantly.

“For example, wheat exports fell by 40% compared to the previous month and halved compared to December 2023, barley exports – by 22%, which is also half as much as in 2023. The shipments of sunflower oil also decreased,” the expert clarifies.

In January, the situation improved, as new registration limits were opened in 2025. UkrAgroConsult expects wheat exports to grow. But, adds Elizaveta Malyshko, the export rate is likely to increase slightly, as the seasonal factor is now coming into play: it should be borne in mind that this year’s export potential is 20% lower than the previous season.