Ukrainian sugar: Is there real export upside in 2025/26

Sugarcane production and cane sugar content are affected not only by weather, but also by the increasingly influential cane sugar processing into ethanol. That makes sugar more volatile and more sensitive to every new forecast on cane yields, crushing pace, and the ethanol usage.

In the last few seasons, sugar prices flowed a downtrend with short, sharp rallies. Traders consider any forecast of production decline as a signal for price upward move, but the market is now getting a different story for the transition from 2024/25 to 2025/26 season with higher global output and a more comfortable balance.

The main drivers of the sugar market in 2025 were the forecasts of the deficit of sugar on the world market from ISO for one season 2024/25. Over the four updates of the forecast, significant changes have occurred – an increase in the production/consumption gap and a sharp reduction in the deficit indicator.

Ukraine is entering 2025/26 with three simultaneous pressures:

• global oversupply
• tougher competition for “third markets”
• political resistance inside the EU.

Sugar industry reduced output, but not enough to balance the market, production is estimated at 1.55 M mt (vs 1.75 M mt in 2024/25).

After the was reduced Ukraine’s domestic sugar consumption to about 0.9–1.0 M mt, opening of EU markets in 2022 supported the sector with growing output. Then the EU moved to import quota regulation after market saturation concerns. From 29 October 2025, exports to the EU are allowed within a 100 K mt/year quota of white sugar.

In the 2025/26 season, sustainable Ukrainian sugar exports will continue. Recognizing that the European market will remain limited, sugar industry continuing to seek new sales markets.

The key outcome of 2025/26 is that EU can no longer be the main destination. The business model must be export diversification, with the EU acting only as a market of limited exports.

In 2024/25, Ukraine’s export destinations widened strongly, only about 17% were shipped to the EU. The 2025/26 start was slow. In the first 3 months of 2025/26, Ukraine’s sugar exports are down 31% y/y to 116.6 K mt.

For a deeper understanding of the current market situation and future outlook, the analytical research “The Sugar Market in Ukraine” offers a comprehensive overview of key agricultural trends. The study combines historical data over a 3–5 year period, analysis of major market drivers, rankings of leading players, and both short- and long-term forecasts.