Uncertainties As The New Reality: How Agri Business Can Generate Money In 2026

Interview with Sergii Feofilov, CEO of UkrAgroConsult.

Reflecting on 2025, what market changes do you see as most influential for Ukraine and the region?

Sergii Feofilov: 2025 has finally broken the illusion of a "normal" market, the old logic of agricultural markets. The agricultural sector of Ukraine and the entire Black Sea-Danube region has switched to a regime of constant risk management. This is no longer a temporary trend - this is a new logic.

Firstly, geopolitics is not just a context, but a fundamental factor in pricing, logistics and financing. War, sanctions, trade restrictions, regional conflicts directly affect margins, and sometimes even the possibility of export. I included geopolitical factor in my presentations already 2-3 years ago, because I was confident about this trend.

Secondly, the market has become more chaotic. The usual S&D balances no longer work. Even a record harvest does not guarantee sales and coverage of losses, and changes in logistics can cross out all accounts and hopes of a contract.

Next is regionalization. The Black Sea, the Danube, the Balkans, Central Europe are no longer just geography, but separate market systems with their own rules, risks and opportunities. This is reality. A specific case is 5 neighbors that have established their own import rules for goods from Ukraine.

What is your forecast of new risks and opportunities for 2026?

Sergii Feofilov: The main risk is not price. The market has become so complex that an inaccurate step in logistics, contracts or financing can destroy margins even at a good price.

In 2026, key risk areas are extended: logistics as a bottleneck, access to financing, climate issues and regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the EU context.

But this is where opportunities arise. Companies that learn to calculate risks in numbers, not in emotions, will be able to win. There is a demand for individual strategies, scenario planning, short decision-making cycles.

Mass solutions are losing their effectiveness. It is very likely that 2026 will not be a year of volume growth, but of competition for margins.

Which trends in the global and regional grain and oilseed markets stood out in 2025?

Sergii Feofilov: The first trend is excess supply with unstable demand. Global production is growing, but consumption is growing slowly and very unevenly. This creates constant pressure on prices.

The second is the redistribution of roles between countries. Some traditional exporters are losing their positions due to risks, logistics or politics. Others are getting stronger, investing in processing and supply chain control.

The third is technological. AI, big data, automation - all of this is part of the industry.

Which areas of UkrAgroConsult expertise deliver the most value to market operators today?

Sergii Feofilov: Today, our clients place the greatest value on market scenario forecasts, weekly reviews, logistics tracking and risk assessments. These tools are the most effective in times of uncertainty.

UkrAgroConsult’s international and local conferences remain a highly effective tool for market access under current conditions. Between 2023-2025, we organized five international events in Bucharest and Prague, while continuing our annual conferences in Kyiv. These events facilitated meetings between traders, processors, banks, and logistics operators from Ukraine, the Danube region, the Balkans, and the EU, directly influencing trade flows.

While analytics provides a structured understanding of the market, it is personal interaction that delivers access to informal signals, rapid decision-making, and real-time hypothesis testing. Participation in conferences complements analytics with live market context, direct contacts, and actionable insights that translate into tangible business opportunities.

What key insights is UkrAgroConsult taking from the market environment of 2025?

Sergii Feofilov: The first is that speed of decision-making is more important than perfection. It is better to make a decision and adjust it as you go along than wait for a complete set of factors - a complete set no longer exists, or will change within 3–5 days.

Secondaly, we can see that accessible massive statistics and large amounts of data without expert analysis create noise, not solutions. In the era of AI, an analyst's responsibility only grows, not decreases. Therefore, demand is shifting from 'information' to interpretation and specific scenarios.

Thirdly, consulting can no longer be universal. In a noisy market, trust becomes the main currency. We are consciously moving to bespoke products. Our focus is on the Black Sea, Danube and Balkan regions, as well as Central and Eastern Europe. The demand for analytics in these markets is growing rapidly.

How is the experience of 2025 shaping UkrAgroConsult’s priorities in 2026?

Sergii Feofilov: We invest in unique databases, digital products and risk forecasting models. Our goal is to provide clients with clear analytical support for strategic decision-making and to reduce market uncertainty.

We don’t just analyze the market - we help clients generate results in conditions where conventional approaches no longer work. 2026 will be a year of short planning cycles, continuous strategy adjustments and highly pragmatic decision-making.