Black Sea wheat exports are still outpacing last year, but risks are mounting

The new season began with strong grain export volumes through Black Sea ports. Exports during the first three weeks of the MY 2026/27 significantly exceeded the levels recorded in July last year. This is mainly due not to current market conditions but to the weather-related characteristics of the previous season, when harvesting started later than usual and new-crop supplies reached the market with a delay, postponing the seasonal increase in shipments.

The shift of buyers toward grain from Bulgaria and Romania remains only partially evident, primarily through higher shipments via the Port of Constanța. Despite logistical constraints, buyers have been reluctant to switch to European wheat. Importers in Turkey, Egypt and North Africa are relying on stocks from their own new harvest while waiting to see how the situation develops. The decline in shipments through Ukrainian and Russian ports is therefore expected to become more apparent in August.

Wheat Exports From Black Sea Ports, KMT

*POC – Pivdenne, Odesa, Chornomorsk