Ukraine’s sunflower market in MY 2026/27: will processing and exports be sufficient

After a supply-deficit MY 2025/26, Ukraine’s sunflower market is entering the new season with a significantly larger raw material base. The crop may recover by around a quarter, but the key risk is shifting from seed availability to processing and, above all, the ability to export sunflower oil and meal. Therefore, market behavior in MY 2026/27 will be determined less by crop size and more by the availability of stable export logistics.

Sunflower seed. Last season, limited supply and restrained farmer selling supported high domestic prices and strong competition between crushers. With a larger crop, this strategy may become less effective: rising supply combined with restricted exports of processed products is gradually creating a more favorable market environment for raw material buyers.

Crushing. Ukraine technically has sufficient capacity to process almost the entire available sunflower crop, but actual plant utilization will depend on the ability to sell oil and meal. If maritime logistics recover, the larger crop could support a substantial rebound in crushing and exports. If port disruptions continue, some plants may have to reduce production despite sufficient seed availability. This creates a new type of overcapacity: raw materials and crushing facilities are available, but secure export outlets for finished products are insufficient.