Russia. Production and export potential of grain market

Russia expected another bumper grain crop in MY 2019/20. The causes for optimism included an expansion of planted area and almost ideal winter survival of crops. However, the record crop projections did not come true.

The summer featured constantly falling forecasts for Russia’s wheat crop. Although its planted acreage increased to a 10-year high (+0.8 Ml ha, or +3% from 2018), this year’s yield has been affected by adverse weather and may end up at the 2018 level at best. Overall, the 2019/20 wheat output forecasts fell by almost 10 MMT from July 1 to August 15.

As a result, although the wheat crop in Russia is expected to be nevertheless higher than last year, exportable supplies will drop by at least 8-10%, reports UkrAgroConsult.

UkrAgroConsult forecasts the total crop of grains and pulses up 6% from last year, but down 10% from the 2017 record. At the same time, experts estimate lower Russia’s export potential than in MY 2018/19 as carryover supplies are at a five-year low.