While the world’s giants of soybean production such as the U.S., Brazil and Argentina are struggling for the main consumer, i.e. China, Ukraine firmly retains its own niche, though it is a smaller one.
Transformation of the soybean market under the impact of the “soybean amendments,” September 2018:
- soybean plantings in Ukraine contracted by more than 15% within 2 years
- crop losses in 2018 and 2019 were offset by record-high soybean yield
- the 2019/20 crop at 4.25 MMT (down 9% from the 2018/19)
- in the 2019/20 season, much of the soybean market moved into the shadows that is another argument for abolishing the restrictions on soybean export VAT refund
- soybean demand from key consumers is stable, 97% of this season’s exportable soybean supplies were shipped abroad in September-March.
The second half of the 2019/20 season is witnessing a considerably sharpening competition between exporters/traders and crushers for remaining soybean stocks. As of early March, crushing and storage companies held a total of 280 KMT of soybeans versus 742 KMT a year earlier, UkrAgroConsult reports.
Contrary to the previous three years, weather will also play a key role in the 2020 soybean crop, apart from market factors. The weather risks may result in late planting and reduce the soybean area. Though soybeans remain the most expensive oilseed.