The Ukrainian ports blockade promoted grain exports from Bulgaria

Despite the rapid growth of foreign demand for Bulgarian grain after the blockade of Ukrainian seaports, we are changing our estimates of wheat and barley exports this season, as exports rates to countries outside the EU in November-February were quite low.

UkrAgroConsult estimates corn exports from Bulgaria will remain unchanged. As Bulgarian corn is mainly consumed within the EU, exports to third countries are insignificant, although the exports grew in March and April 2022.

The prospects for the 2022 harvest are quite good. Winter crops conditions are mostly good. Rainfall in autumn and winter was sufficient and the long spring allowed the most efficient use of moisture. Due to the lack of heat the crops vegetation lagged behind until the early May. Currently, the crops development corresponds to the average long-term trends.

In May, precipitation shortage was registered in Bulgaria while average temperatures sharply rose, but this is unlikely to worsen the crops condition. The weather forecast for June is also favorable, in the main grain-producing areas precipitation is expected at the level of 50-80 mm.

Favorable weather allows increasing the estimates of winter crops yields.

Thus, grain crop in Bulgaria may reach almost 10.5 M mt. export rates will depend from further blockade of Ukrainian ports, farmers sales as well as price level in the Black Sea region.

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