USDA revised its forecast for Black Sea grain production and exports

In the August report published on Friday, August 10, the USDA changed a number of its estimates for grain production and exports in the Black Sea region, reports UkrAgroConsult.

The USDA experts left unchanged their forecast for wheat production and exports in Ukraine. At the same time, the July estimates for both production and exports of Russian wheat in MY 2018/19 were increased by 1 MMT. The figure for 2017/18 wheat exports from Russia was also adjusted upward by 1 MMT.

Ukrainian corn production in MY 2018/19 is forecast at 31 MMT that is up 1 MMT from the July USDA estimate. Correspondingly, the estimate for 2018/19 corn exports from Ukraine was also raised, to 24.5 MMT (up 0.5 MMT). At the same time, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in the current 2017/18 season was reduced by 1 MMT, to 18.5 MMT. On the contrary, the 2017/18 corn export forecast for Russia was raised by 0.5 MMT, to 5.3 MMT. No other adjustments were made in the estimates for Russian corn production and exports.

The estimates for Ukrainian barley production and exports in MY 2018/19 were increased by 1 MMT each. The estimate for 2017/18 barley exports from Ukraine was cut by 200 KMT. The estimate for Russian barley exports in MY 2017/18 gained the same 200 KMT. All the other estimates for Russian barley production and exports did not change.

It is also worth noting that the USDA lifted its estimate for 2018/19 wheat production in Kazakhstan by 0.5 MMT. In addition, the forecast for Kazakh barley exports in MY 2017/18 was increased by 100 KMT.