Ukraine. 2022/23 export outlook: volumes and destinations

With the beginning of the blockade of Ukrainian seaports, the share of rail and road transport and shipments through the Danube ports have increased. Neighboring EU countries – Poland, Slovakia, Romania, etc. – have become the main export destinations. In addition, this was contributed to by the lifting of EU import restrictions.

Ukraine has shown itself to be a reliable supplier even amid martial law in the country, so it is no surprise that the EU share in the range of Ukraine’s export destinations remains high. Ukrainian grain has a good price/quality ratio, which is why it successfully competes in the European domestic market.

The European export destination remained significant for Ukrainian grain even after the opening of the “grain corridor” – in two months of the new season, the EU’s share in Ukrainian wheat and barley exports grew to 49% and 73%, respectively.

Ukrainian grains (especially corn) are in demand from European consumers due to a domestic crop failure. Drought damaged crops in major growing countries such as France and Romania.

The excess supply of grain in Ukraine is pushing sellers to sell it at low prices, therefore the price of Ukrainian grain is extremely attractive to the end buyer in the EU.

UkrAgroConsult’s analysts hope the “grain deal” will remain in force after November 19. In this case, Ukraine will be able to realize its export potential that will allow easing the pressure on its storage capacity and getting money for planting in the next season.