Ukraine. Combination of shocks made logistic and trade flow shifts inevitable in 2022

Main challenges of the grain market logistics, 2010-2021

• Growing grain and oil crops production (39.0 M mt of all grains in 2010 and 86.0 M mt in 2021);
• A shortage of grain railcars;
• Rising prices for diesel fuel.

Problems for grain market logistics, 2022-2023

• The seaport blockade in March-July forced traders to forget completely the traditional practices of grain exports through deep-water Black Sea ports and through smaller Azov Sea ports.
• Urgent needs to change fundamentally the supply chain of Ukrainian agri exports.
• Search and development of alternative export routes incl. through railway crossings on the western borders and small Danube ports with available grain terminals, deliveries by trucks/road transport. Prior to the start of the grain deal during March-July 2022 – this is 5 months- Ukraine exported 7.8 M mt of grains, oilseeds, vegetable oils and oil meals. Previously, 7-8 M mt might be shipped abroad per month at the peak of the agricultural exports.

Total March-December 2022 agricultural exports amounted to 38.9 M mt:

• 8 M mt of grains
• 8 M mt of oilseeds
• 7 M mt of vegetable oils and processed products