Ukraine. Will the exports by vessels take over all agricultural export?

Supply chains of agricultural exports before the 2023

Before the war start, about 95% of agricultural products were exported by sea. The remaining 5% were shipped by rail, and the share of exports by road did not exceed 1%.

The record exports by rail of 3.4 M mt was recorded in 2018/19 season. The record of road/trucks shipments wasin 2015/16 MY – 348 K mt. Until 2021/22 season, an average of 2.7-3.0 M mt of agricultural products were shipped by land. The situation changed dramatically after February 2022.

Due to the blockade of the main seaports, starting from March 2022 Ukrainian commodities were exported only by rail, road and through small Danube ports.Even in 2021/22 season, the share of exports by land increased to 8.5% vs. average 4-5% before:

3.85 M mt shipped by rail;
0.76 M mt by roads/trucks.

The 2022/23 trend has been completely different. Exports by land being previously at 47%, sharply dropped down to 20.9% (March 2023) and may drop to 16.2% in April. Nevertheless, during July 2022-April 2023 (wheat, barley) and Sept. 2022–April 2023 about 15 M mt of agricultural products were shipped by land across the western borders, which is about a third of total exports, incl.:

9.85 M mt by rail;
5.1 M mt by roads.