High-oleic sunflower in Ukraine – Just a couple of steps until 2025/26 season starts

Pre-war the HO acreage was climbing but war flipped the script while global food-industry demand for HO FO still runs hot and keeps pull high.

In 2024, HO SFS area was lowest since 2019/20. The yields under heat stress deepen the dip and disappointing.

Use at home includes snacks & fast-food bakery foodservice thanks to long fryer life and high stability.  Nevertheless, the oil is export-oriented and the flow is shrinking following the crop.

Ukrainian HO sunoil exports remain quite diversified despite the decrease in total exports with  56 importing countries, but exports to many of them are minimal. So, hopes for increase in sales look promising.

Core issue is farm margin. The HO premium has been too unstable, so farmers often have to price HO as regular SFS. If so, the bonus will not cover production costs that kills area incentives.

Premium math last five seasons was 500–1500 UAH/mt (€10–31/mt), but in 2024/25, the premium spiked near 8000 UAH/mt (€167/mt). This is real planting fuel for 2026 if it holds.

HO crude vs regular SFO spread is around $300/mt (€256/mt).

Forecasts of 2025/26

UkrAgroConsult 2025/26 base case HO sunseed

• area up 21% y/y
• crop up 18%.