USDA slightly adjusted its estimates for the Black Sea region

Wheat

The forecast for global wheat production was somewhat reduced again, to 765.2 MMT (-0.3 MMT), mostly at the expense of Australia, the U.S. and Canada.

The forecasts for Black Sea countries did not change. To our surprise, the wheat production estimate for Russia was left at 72.5 MMT against market forecasts of 75-76 MMT, the Russian Ag Ministry’s forecast of 78 MMT, and the 76.8 MMT harvested by now from 96.8% of acreage. 

Corn

The forecast for global production was decreased by another 0.9 MMT, to 1104 MMT, mostly at the expense of the U.S. and Egypt.

Among all of the Black Sea countries, the estimates were only revised for Russia. As expected, USDA raised its forecast for Russian corn production by 0.5 MMT, to 13.5 MMT. The estimate for corn exports from Russia was also increased by 0.5 MMT, to 5.2 MMT.

Barley

Like the wheat forecast, that for barley underwent no change. However, in the opinion of UkrAgroConsult, the barley crop in Russia is underestimated, similar to the country’s wheat output. By October 9, Russian farmers had already harvested 21.3 MMT of barley from 95.7% of its acreage.

USDA: Estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in 2019/20 season, MMT (October)