2021 crop results in Ukraine may greatly differ from current forecasts

On August 17, the State Statistics Committee published its first report on harvest progress in Ukraine as of August 1. The figures contained there significantly differ from real-time data provided by the Economy Ministry on a weekly basis.

The first noteworthy discrepancy consists in wheat harvest progress – both sources agree that the harvest indeed started later, but the State Statistics Service’s data as of August 1 already show that its progress is outpacing the five-year average, while the Economy Ministry claims that the delay was overcome as recently as last week.

The difference between the average yield estimates for Ukraine is not so significant – the State Statistics Service’s 4.4 MT/ha versus the Economy Ministry’s 4.45 MT/ha.

Thus, assuming the current real-time yield keeps at 4.6 MT/ha (the Economy Ministry as of August 12), Ukraine’s wheat crop could reach an optimistic level, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Once the harvest of late grains begins, the market will already switch its attention to monitoring corn yield.

Now it is only safe to say that the 2021/22 grain crop will definitely beat the 2019/20 record. In addition, in view of crop problems faced in major exporting countries, grain exports from Ukraine may hit a record high as well.