Ukrainian wheat will be able to replace Australia’s one in the Indonesian market

According to February’s USDA forecast, Australian wheat exports may close this season at most at 10 MMT, i.e. at the lowest point since the 2007/08 season. The Department’s experts predict them to fall by 28% against MY 2017/18 (13.85 MMT).

In view of the latest export data, this forecast looks somewhat overestimated. The pace of exports in July-December 2018/19 is much slower than predicted: Ukraine exported just 41% less than a year earlier. In addition, this volume is 38% below the five-year average for the country.

Decisive will be the second half of the season, when the bulk of wheat arrives in the global market after harvest. However, market participants expect no surge in exports: in view of severe drought, this season’s domestic wheat consumption is estimated at an all-time high of 5.5 MMT (4 MMT last season; 3.82 MMT on average in the past five years).

Australia’s export potential has been falling for a second straight season, and the country continues losing ground in the markets of its key buyers, i.e. Asian countries, reports UkrAgroConsult.