In the monthly forecast published on Thursday, November 8, USDA raised its estimates for both production and exports of grains in the Black Sea region.
The USDA grain production estimates increased at the expense of the corn crop forecasts for Ukraine and Russia. So, November’s forecast for the 2018/19 corn crop in Ukraine was upped by 2.5 MMT against October, to 33.5 MMT. Correspondingly, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports in MY 2017/18 was adjusted by 2 MMT, to 27 MMT. The 2018/19 corn crop forecast for Russia was raised by 300 KMT, to 11.3 MMT, while the export estimate remained unchanged.
In addition, the barley export estimates for Ukraine and Russia were increased by 200 KMT each. Thus, 2018/19 barley export availabilities in Ukraine and Russia are estimated at 4.5 MMT and 4.7 MMT, respectively.
The grain production and export forecasts for Kazakhstan did not change, except for a +0.5 MMT rise in the wheat export estimate, to 9 MMT.
Overall, November’s estimate for Black Sea production of major grains was increased by 1.2% against October, to 183.9 MMT. The export estimate gained 2.4%, reaching 101.3 MMT. At the same time, a 500 KMT decrease in the forecast for Ukraine’s 2018/19 wheat crop (to 25 MMT) had no impact on the general upward trend in grain production estimates for the Black Sea region.
USDA: Estimates for Black Sea grain production and exports in 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons, MMT (November)