USDA: Forecast for the Black Sea oilseed crop in MY 2020/21 above expectations

In the May report, the USDA raised its estimate for the 2019/20 oilseed crop in the Black Sea region to 49.931 MMT (+0.1 MMT as the rapeseed crop forecast for Ukraine was adjusted to 6.489 MMT), UkrAgroConsult reports.

The USDA forecast for the 2020/21 oilseed crop is put at 51.485 MMT (+1.554 MMT from the 2019/20 estimate):

- sunseed – 36.040 MMT (+0.761 MMT);

- soybean – 8.310 MMT (+0.147 MMT);

- rapeseed – 7.135 MMT (+0.646 MMT).

Oilseed crop forecast for Ukraine

- USDA – 24.5 MMT (23.7 MMT in 2019);

- UkrAgroConsult – 23.2 MMT (23.96 MMT in 2019);

- undoubtedly, sunflower and rape plantings will be expanded and those of soy will be reduced, but UkrAgroConsult sees a less significant reduction, just by 70 Th ha vs a 165 Th ha drop suggested by the USDA;

- the USDA expects yield growth in all oilseeds in Ukraine, predicting sunseed and rapeseed yields to hit record highs (sunflower seed – 2.58 MT/ha, soybeans – 2.41 MT/ha, rapeseed – 2.96 MT/ha). UkrAgroConsult’s forecast is based on three-year average figures.

Ukraine: Oilcrops production forecast - 2020